Europe's Choice: Confront Russia Now or Surrender Later

Keith Raffel
Wed, 03 Dec 2025 12:36:54 -0800
Opinion

Europe is in a state of decline.

In 1980 the European Union, which then included the United Kingdom, represented roughly 30% of the world economy. The U.S.' share was smaller, about 25%. Today the American share of the pie is about the same at 26%. The EU plus the UK is now around 17%, down by almost half.

This year NATO countries excluding the United States will spend $559 billion on defense. The United States will spend $845 billion, over half again as much.
Updated: Wed Dec 03, 2025

Europe is in a state of decline.

In 1980 the European Union, which then included the United Kingdom, represented roughly 30% of the world economy. The U.S.' share was smaller, about 25%. Today the American share of the pie is about the same at 26%. The EU plus the UK is now around 17%, down by almost half.

This year NATO countries excluding the United States will spend $559 billion on defense. The United States will spend $845 billion, over half again as much.

Despite Europe's slow economic growth and underresourced military, its people are leading the good life. According to one poll, eight of the 10 happiest countries in the world are European. The nation-states of Europe, however, are having trouble mustering the resolve to protect the good lives they enjoy.

Washington spotted Europe's waning influence years ago. President Barack Obama's "pivot to Asia" in 2012 signaled an unsubtle acknowledgment of the decline of Europe and rise of China. His weak response to the Russian military seizure of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula two years later sent another warning. After Russia launched its attempt to conquer the remainder of Ukraine in 2022, President Joe Biden refused to provide Kyiv with weapons that matched those of the invading Russians.

President Donald Trump is taking appeasement of Russia to another level. He has wondered aloud whether the United States should honor its treaty obligations to defend a NATO country that comes under attack. He has backed a pro-Russian plan to end the war in Ukraine that included a $50 billion payoff to the U.S., ceding Ukrainian territory to Russia, limits on the size of Ukrainian armed forces and the ban on foreign troops in Ukraine.

Twenty years ago, Putin called the collapse of the Soviet Empire "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century." Supported by China, Iran and North Korea, Russia is on the march. The recent proposal would be a major step toward reversing the effects of that collapse. Once Russia had recovered from four years of war, there would be little to stop it from taking over the rest of Ukraine and extending its reach over much of Eastern and Central Europe.

History offers a lesson. In September 1938, France and the UK acceded to Hitler taking over swathes of Czechoslovakia bordering Germany. Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain promised the British people "peace in our time." Winston Churchill, not yet prime minister, responded, "This is only the first sip, the first foretaste of a bitter cup which will be proffered to us year by year, unless by a supreme recovery of moral health and martial vigour, we arise again and take our stand for freedom as in the olden time." Of course, Churchill was correct. Germany occupied the rest of Czechoslovakia six months later and invaded Poland another six months after that.

Germany detected weakness in other European countries in 1938 as does Russia today. Acceding to Putin's demands, to his "first sip," will only whet his appetite.

European nations need not passively stand by as Trump and Putin determine their fate. When it comes to economic power, the EU and UK have octuple the GDP of Russia. It's time to spend to rebuild their militaries so they can resist Russian aggression.

Right now, the signs of whether the European members of NATO will meet the challenge are mixed. Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all spend a higher percentage of their GDP on defense than does the United States. There's good reason for that. They all border Russia. Finland and Sweden have dropped any pretense of neutrality by joining NATO. European diplomats have demanded that they be heard in any deal with Russia.

The European Commission has proposed tapping over $100 billion in frozen Russian bank deposits to fund Ukraine's defense. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen argued, "Since pressure is the only language the Kremlin responds to, we can also dial it up." But Belgium, where most of the funds are held, is dragging its feet.

General Fabien Mandon, the French army chief, recently put it bluntly: "We have the know-how, and we have the economic and demographic strength to dissuade the regime in Moscow. What we are lacking... is the spirit which accepts that we will have to suffer if we are to protect what we are." His comments engendered criticism from both the left and right in France.

Europe must be ready to step up and support Ukraine against Russian aggression with or without the United States. Sacrificing Ukraine now will not bring protection later. Sometimes restraint looks like wisdom. When facing a Hitler in 1938 or a Putin in 2025, it looks like cowardice.