The 3 Big Lies About the Iran War

Ben Shapiro
Wed, 11 Mar 2026 13:33:47 -0700
Opinion

If you've been following coverage of the Trump administration's military action against Iran, you've probably noticed something: A lot of people are determined to convince you that the United States is losing.

They're wrong.

Even worse, many of them know they're wrong. Critics across the political spectrum — from Democrats to elements of the so-called horseshoe Right — are pushing narratives that paint the conflict as a disaster in the making. The goal is simple: Undermine public confidence and turn what is shaping up as a strategic success into a perceived failure.
Updated: Wed Mar 11, 2026

If you've been following coverage of the Trump administration's military action against Iran, you've probably noticed something: A lot of people are determined to convince you that the United States is losing.

They're wrong.

Even worse, many of them know they're wrong. Critics across the political spectrum — from Democrats to elements of the so-called horseshoe Right — are pushing narratives that paint the conflict as a disaster in the making. The goal is simple: Undermine public confidence and turn what is shaping up as a strategic success into a perceived failure.

Three particular claims are circulating widely. All three deserve to be addressed.

Lie No. 1: The war is a quagmire.

The first claim is that the United States has stumbled into another interminable Middle East war — one destined to drag on for years and possibly escalate to catastrophic levels.

This is absurd.

At the time of this writing, the conflict is less than two weeks old. Twelve days. That's not 12 years, as in Vietnam, or even 12 months, as in the Spanish-American War.

Wars unfold over time, and no one should pretend to know exactly how long any conflict will last. But the notion that the United States is already trapped in a generational quagmire — after less than two weeks of fighting — is less analysis than panic.

Lie No. 2: Iran is somehow winning.

A second claim insists that Iran is holding strong — that the regime is weathering the assault and even gaining the upper hand.

Again, reality tells a different story.

Iran's military capabilities have been battered. Its missile and drone infrastructure has been heavily targeted. Its naval assets have reportedly suffered severe losses. Leadership turmoil inside the regime only compounds the problem.

Reports suggest that the death of longtime Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has triggered a chaotic succession struggle. Even his presumed heir, Mojtaba Khamenei, appears to lack both political support and personal legitimacy within the system.

In other words, the Iranian regime is not projecting strength. It is scrambling to maintain control.

Lie No. 3: The oil shock will break the United States.

The final warning is economic: Iran, critics say, will simply shut down the Strait of Hormuz, sending global oil prices skyrocketing and bringing the American economy to its knees.

For a brief moment earlier this week, markets reacted to that fear. Oil prices jumped sharply amid speculation that the strait could be disrupted.

But the panic faded almost as quickly as it began. Within days, crude prices had fallen back below $90 a barrel.

Markets, unlike pundits, respond to reality. And the reality is that Iran faces enormous consequences if it attempts to choke off one of the world's most vital shipping lanes.

President Donald Trump has made that point unmistakably clear. In a statement posted online, he warned that any Iranian attempt to block the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz would trigger an overwhelming American response.

The message was aimed not only at Tehran but also at Beijing and other major energy consumers: The United States intends to keep global energy flowing — and anyone who interferes will pay a heavy price.

There are legitimate questions to ask about any military action. Democracies require scrutiny, debate and skepticism.

But skepticism should not be confused with hysteria.

Right now, critics are spinning worst-case scenarios while ignoring the basic facts on the ground: Iran's military is under severe pressure, its leadership structure is unstable, and the economic fallout that many predicted has yet to materialize.

None of this guarantees the conflict will end quickly or cleanly. War rarely works that way.

But it does suggest that the narrative of inevitable American failure — so loudly promoted by the administration's opponents — is far removed from the reality unfolding in the Middle East.

And that reality matters far more than the talking points.